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Last modified: Sunday, January 14, 2007 12:10 AM EST
FARINELLA: NFL picks never easy
BY MARK FARINELLA SUN CHRONICLE STAFF
If I had a dollar for every pundit who makes preseason NFL predictions, I wouldn't be writing this column. I'd be vacationing in Aruba.
But how many of them actually step forward and take the heat for the picks they get wrong at the end of the season? Not many.
Here at the Blue Ribbon Daily, however, we stress accountability. I'm not afraid to admit when I'm wrong - or crow a little when I'm right, which isn't often - so here's a quick look at the divisional picks I made back in September, and how they turned out:
AFC EAST
PREDICTION: New England 11-5, Miami 8-8, Jets 5-11, Buffalo 4-12.
ACTUAL: New England 12-4, Jets 10-6, Buffalo 7-9, Miami 6-10.
OK, we all believed the Patriots would win the division, but while I didn't do too well with the order of the teams thereafter, at least my lack of faith in the Miami Dolphins was borne out. Their collapse was sweeter than anticipated, but I and many others believed that the Jets wouldn't be ready to leap into the playoffs in their first year under Eric Mangini. Live and learn.
AFC NORTH
PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 14-2, Cincinnati 12-4, Baltimore 4-12, Cleveland 3-13.
ACTUAL: Baltimore 13-3, Cincinnati 8-8, Pittsburgh 8-8, Cleveland 4-12.
Here's a big whoops. No one anticipated the Baltimore Ravens putting it all together to run away with the division. Few probably thought the Steelers will fall apart so badly over the first half of the season, too, although they did do a decent job of atoning for the bad start. The award for Most Pundit Overestimation goes to everyone, including me, who thought the Bengals would make it to the playoffs this year. Meanwhile in Cleveland, sadly, Romeo Crennel's Browns didn't disappoint those who suggested they'd be disappointing.
AFC SOUTH
PREDICTION: Indianapolis 14-2, Jacksonville 12-4, Houston 3-13, Tennessee 2-14.
ACTUAL: Indianapolis 12-4, Tennessee 8-8, Jacksonville 8-8, Houston 6-10.
The Colts seemed well on their way to 14-2 or better before people realized that they had no run defense whatsoever. Jacksonville's failings included an injured quarterback and two losses to Houston (go figure!), while Tennessee's Vince Young made the transition to the pros a lot better than a lot of people thought he would, and the Titans prospered as a result. The Texans were three wins better than I thought they'd be (thank you, Jaguars …), but that wasn't enough to elevate them out of last place as I had hoped.
AFC WEST
PREDICTION: Denver 12-4, Kansas City 10-6, San Diego 9-7, Oakland 6-10.
ACTUAL: San Diego 14-2, Kansas City 9-7, Denver 9-7, Oakland 2-14.
Ahem. If someone had told me that LaDainian Tomlinson would be able to run (not walk) on water this season, I probably would have given the Chargers a few more wins. But the guy who should be fired here is Mike Shanahan, who continues to grind out mediocre teams whose only claim to fame is the ability to outwit Bill Belichick once a year. The Chiefs, by virtue of a tiebreaker, gave me one team in its correct place in the standings, and the Raiders, as awful as they came this year, gave me the other.
PLAYOFF FIELD
PREDICTION: 1. Indianapolis, 2. Pittsburgh, 3. Denver, 4. New England, 5. Jacksonville, 6. Cincinnati.
ACTUAL: 1. San Diego, 2. Baltimore, 3. Indianapolis, 4. New England, 5. Kansas City, 6. Jets.
Hey, whaddya know! I got one of the seedings right! Not bad, considering that I picked only two of the actual playoff participants. And I'm supposed to know the AFC better than I know the NFC.
NFC EAST
PREDICTION: Dallas 12-4, Giants 11-5, Philadelphia 10-6, Washington 4-12.
ACTUAL: Philadelphia 10-6, Dallas 9-7, Giants 8-8, Washington 5-11.
The oddity of this division is that while the top three teams are in the wrong positions, I did correctly pick that it would produce both wild-card teams, and I got the Eagles' record correct - the only one out of 32 teams. Clearly, I overestimated the Giants' progress under Eli Manning and I didn't anticipate the effects, both positive and negative, of the Romo-for-Bledsoe change and the T.O. Follies in Dallas. But I had Washington pegged, not too difficult given the way the team's been run since Dan Snyder bought it.
NFC NORTH
PREDICTION: Chicago 12-4, Minnesota 10-6, Detroit 6-10, Green Bay 3-13.
ACTUAL: Chicago 13-3, Green Bay 8-8, Minnesota 6-10, Detroit 3-13.
This was a strange division. Clearly, the Bears were destined to be the best of a bad lot and I recognized them as such. But I thought Green Bay was going to be the worst, and they certainly looked the part when they lost a 35-0 decision to the Patriots at Lambeau. The Vikings looked a lot better to me, except at quarterback, when the Patriots beat them 31-7 at the Metrodome, but no one could have guessed that the lowly, horribly mismanaged Lions would give the Patriots the best game of all of these teams.
NFC SOUTH
PREDICTION: Carolina 13-3, Atlanta 8-8, New Orleans 6-10, Tampa Bay 5-11.
ACTUAL: New Orleans 10-6, Carolina 8-8, Atlanta 7-9, Tampa Bay 4-12.
Another division in which it wasn't difficult to pick the worst team. I thought the Saints were going to show some improvement, but I wasn't sure that Drew Brees and Reggie Bush were going to have the impact that they did. And, with a new coach and the disruption of the past year hovering over them, it's almost a miracle what the Saints accomplished. Carolina disappointed me, but Atlanta didn't - and to be honest, when I picked 8-8 in September, I felt then I was being generous. I've never bought into the myth of Michael Vick and I'm not about to start now.
NFC WEST
PREDICTION: Seattle 13-3, Arizona 7-9, St. Louis 4-12, San Francisco 3-13.
ACTUAL: Seattle 9-7, St. Louis 8-8, San Francisco 7-9, Arizona 5-11.
I had faith in the Seahawks (this area's other "local" team, given the presence of Lofa Tatupu and Matt Hasselbeck), but given what they endured on the injury front, I'm lucky and so are they that they clung onto first place. The Rams came out of nowhere, as did San Francisco, but at least I had the good sense to realize that the Cardinals, even with the bump up in fan enthusiasm because of the new stadium, were still the Cardinals and destined for another sub.-500 finish.
PLAYOFF FIELD
PREDICTION: 1. Seattle, 2. Carolina, 3. Dallas, 4. Chicago, 5. Giants, 6. Philadelphia.
ACTUAL: 1. Chicago, 2. New Orleans, 3. Philadelphia, 4. Seattle, 5. Dallas, 6. Giants.
Funny thing, even though I got five of the playoff teams right, I feel like I did a really crappy job of picking because the seedings were so far off. But I suppose I should be more satisfied, because it was a much better job of guesswork than I did with the AFC.
MARK FARINELLA may be reached at 508-236-0315 or via e-mail at mfarinel@thesunchronicle.com |
