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Draft speculation over, time for Pats to step up




FOXBORO - The heights, weights, times in the 40-yard dash and intangibles have all been discussed, dissected and analyzed to the point of wretched excess. Now that the prelude to the NFL Draft is over and it's time for teams to actually take action, what will the Patriots do with their 10 selections starting this afternoon?

That's a very good question.

Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli aren't telling. The Patriots' head coach and their vice president in charge of personnel haven't been within the same zip code as a cluster of reporters since January, so they've had neither inclination nor opportunity to tip their hands.

That reduces attempts at analysis to mere speculation about the Patriots' course of action. But if Belichick's history with past drafts is a clue, there are at least two things that can be reasonably assumed.

First, the Patriots have six picks they can trade, and they will very likely trade some of those. And second, when it comes time for the Patriots to pick, the actions taken by Belichick and Pioli will be dictated by their sense of "value" - the value of the selection and the relative values of the players on the board at that time.

The latter may be a very important factor in what they do with their two first-round choices, No. 24 (obtained from Seattle for wide receiver Deion Branch) and No. 28.

There's a growing suspicion that the Patriots may be willing to trade one or both of their first-round selections, presumably in the latter case for a second-round pick this year and possibly a first-rounder next year. The speculation has some credibility because of an underlying theme to this year's draft that has gradually leaked into the public consciousness - that according to many personnel departments, there are only about 15-20 players in this year's draft who are really worthy of the kind of money teams will have to pay them for selection inside the first 32 picks.

It's not unusual for those on the procurement end to denigrate the supply side; it lessens expectations and thus allows teams to crow over picks who "weren't expected to be on the board for us." A well-known blabbermouth or two (such as Colts' GM Bill Polian, who admitted that his draft board has 18 "first-round value" names on it to Sports Illustrated's Peter King) will get the word out to the public and the rest takes care of itself.

If, however, there are really only a precious few players worth first-round salaries, Belichick and Pioli will do everything they can to make sure they don't overpay for those who aren't.

One scenario put forth late in the week was the Patriots dealing the No. 24 pick to the Washington Redskins, who have the No. 6 pick but no second, third or fourth-round selections. No suggestion was made about what Washington would be giving up, but Belichick and Pioli would be unlikely to do anything that wouldn't involve at least a second-round pick this year and additional high-round compensation next year.

Moving up doesn't appear to be an option. There doesn't seem to be a must-have player at any of the Patriots' biggest needs that would warrant such draft-day gymnastics, nor a willing suitor to make such a deal possible.

Another thing to consider is the fact that the Patriots went on a spending spree this year in free agency. By throwing big money at linebacker Adalius Thomas and wide receivers Donté Stallworth, Kelley Washington and Wes Welker (the latter through trade), Belichick and Pioli may be even less inclined to overspend in the draft.

Two first-round selections amid 10 picks will cost money. And, given the current makeup of the team, the Patriots don't need to spend it.

The draft is a different exercise for the Patriots in 2007 than it was in 1998 or 1999, two other years in which they had two selections low in the first round. Those teams were built badly to begin with and needed the multiple selections - but with the pressure on, both drafts failed to provide the needed relief. In 1998, running back Robert Edwards was injured early in his career and safety-cornerback Tebucky Jones never contributed beyond his role on special teams before being dealt elsewhere. In 1999, center Damien Woody played relatively well and used his early success to cash in on free agency with Detroit, while linebacker Andy Katzenmoyer's career was sidetracked via injury. The current team doesn't need multiple first-round picks in order to improve or remain at a current level of success. That wasn't the case in 2004, when trades swung during the previous year's draft turned into nose tackle Vince Wilfork at No. 21 and tight end Benjamin Watson at No. 32, thus shoring up areas of need that became evident after the Patriots' appearance in Super Bowl XXXVIII.

Belichick isn't bashful about trading picks low in the first round - either to get them, or to get rid of them. He did so in 2002, 2003 and 2004.

Meanwhile, having come within a few minutes of earning their fourth Super Bowl appearance of the Belichick Era last year, the Patriots positioned themselves for another run primarily through free agency. The draft, therefore, should be less for filling the remaining needs with immediate contributors at inside linebacker, the defensive backfield and running back than it will be for restocking the reserves.

To that end, you don't pay first-round money for players who won't be playing immediately - and the course of action that makes the most sense would be for Belichick and Pioli to get out of the first round and shore up the second or third rounds, or add to next year's draft currency.

Still, there are needs to be addressed. Inside linebacker and safety, where much is still expected of aging veterans Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison, appear to be at the top of that list. Whether the needs are pressing enough to warrant first-round money, only Belichick and Pioli know.

It's widely speculated that from among those two position groups, linebackers Jon Beason of Miami, Paul Posluszny of Penn State or Lawrence Timmons of Florida State, or safeties Michael Griffin of Texas, Brandon Meriweather of Miami or Reggie Nelson of Florida could find their way to Foxboro if the Patriots stand pat.

Other possibilities are cornerback Aaron Ross of Texas or tight end Greg Olsen of Miami, the latter given recent revelations that 2006 draftee Dave Thomas suffered a broken foot during offseason workouts.

Given where these players appear to be in the pecking order of possible selections today, it would bring a big smile to Belichick's face if he could pull the necessary strings to get any one of them with second-round money.

MARK FARINELLA may be reached at 508-236-0315 or via e-mail at mfarinel@thesunchronicle.com

 



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