Gov. Deval Patrick is expected to approve $15 million in state heating fuel assistance today to supplement aid the federal government provides, but officials said it is unlikely to be enough to get the poor through the winter.

A combination of less help from Washington and skyrocketing oil prices is conspiring to make this potentially one of the worse winters in memory for those struggling to keep their homes warm.

"You just know the need is going to be there," state Rep. Betty Poirier, R-North Attleboro, said of the $15 million from Beacon Hill.

"I don't even know if this will be enough. We will have to revisit it," she said.

Jon Carlson, executive director of Self Help in Brockton, said the maximum federal benefit for a family of three living at the poverty level of $17,170 is $715. That will pay for about one tank of heating oil, he said. Families above the poverty level get less.

The supplement from the state might add about $100 to the assistance, he said.

In the past, the federal assistance paid for about two to three tanks of oil per year.

The assistance pays for even less than last year. The price of heating oil is now above $3 a gallon, as opposed to about $2.20 at this time last year.

Federal funding has not kept pace, critics charge.

According to the Massachusetts Association for Community Action, federal funding for Massachusetts is up slightly this year from last, but it is $45 million less than two years ago when oil was much cheaper.

The group estimates that 10,000 low-income families could have their heat cut off because they have fallen behind in their payments.

Congress tried to increase the heating assistance program by $250 million nationally when it passed a new labor, health and human resources and education appropriations bill, but President Bush vetoed the measure last week.

A spokesman for U.S. Rep. James McGovern, D-Worcester, said Democrats will try to restore the higher funding for fuel assistance when the appropriations bill is rewritten.

McGovern's office released a fact sheet which said the higher figure would have provided an extra $33.8 million for Massachusetts, giving help for an additional 45,000 people. "Home heating oil, the energy source for one of every two homes in New England, is projected to be 47.3 percent higher than last year's level," McGovern said in a prepared statement.

"The average family will spend almost $700 more, totaling over $2,100. That's money not being spent on food, medicine and other essentials. No one should have to choose between food and having a warm home," he said.

Carlson said the need now is greater than ever.

He said his agency - which serves the Attleboro area - has had an "unprecedented number of request from families in crisis."

By crisis, he said he means a family with children which is completely out of heating fuel.

Self Help serves about 10,000 requests every year, but Carlson said he is seeing a lot of new faces applying this time around.

He said the high price of fuel is pushing middle class families into the lower economic class, making them in need of help.

Poirier said hikes in the cost of heating oil, gasoline and other necessities is putting a strain on everyone.

"This is going to be a very difficult winter for a lot of people," she said.

JIM HAND can be reached at 508-236-0399 or at jhand@thesunchronicle.com.