On paper, this fall's presidential election should be an easy win for the Democratic nominee.

Democrats have a huge advantage in voter turnout, fundraising and party enthusiasm.

The Republican nominee will be saddled with a connection to a highly unpopular president, an unpopular war and an economy that is going in the tank.

All of which makes it surprising and alarming to Democrats that their likely nominee is in a statistical dead heat with Republican standardbearer John McCain.

A Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll this week found Sen. Barack Obama leading McCain 47-44 percent and Sen. Hillary Clinton edging him out 47-45 percent. Both leads are within the margin of error for the poll, so the candidates are tied for all intents and purposes. Under normal circumstances, this should not be.

In some states, more than twice as many people have voted in the Democratic primary as the Republican primary, showing independents are identifying with Democrats this year. And this was true even when the Republicans had a crowded, competitive race.

Democrats are also raking in the money at a far greater pace than Republicans, another sign of support.

Obama has collected $138 million and Clinton took in $134 million while McCain raised only $53.7 million at last count.

Obama raised more money in February, $55 million, than McCain raised during the entire campaign.

Yet, McCain is nipping at their heels in the national polls.

One reason is that negative campaigning among the Democrats is starting to take a toll.

The negative ratings of Clinton and especially of Obama are rising.

Exit polls in Mississippi showed for the first time that supporters of Clinton do not want Obama as a running mate and vice versa. Polls also show that more Democrats and independents are considering switching to McCain in November if their preferred candidate does not get the Democratic nomination.

When Clinton says she and McCain are qualified to be commander in chief but Obama is not, it undercuts the Democratic chances in the fall. Of course, McCain has his own strengths that help explain the situation.

Although many conservatives in the Republican Party are not crazy about McCain, he may be the one Republican who can win this year.

His independent streak and less ideological approach to issues like immigration and taxes is attractive to moderate voters.

He also enjoys an image as a war hero and someone who is strong on national security issues.

So while Republican candidates for Congress are worried about a Democratic wave in the fall, McCain knows the tide is not necessarily going against him.

Thank goodness for Geraldine Ferraro. Someone finally had the courage to speak up for oppressed rich white people.

Her comment that Obama would not be succeeding in the presidential race if he were not black was just a case of a courageous person speaking the truth.

It is obvious from the large number of black people who have been elected president and the tiny number of white people who have won the White House that blacks have an unfair advantage.

JIM HAND covers politics for The Sun Chronicle. His commentaries appear in this space on Saturdays. Contact him at 508-236-0399 or at jhand@thesunchronicle.com.