Last modified: Sunday, September 14, 2008 5:27 PM EDT Brian Germain, left, and Tom Reeves of the Reeves Co. in Attleboro replaced their boilers with three high-efficiency heaters. (Staff photos by Mike George) Conversion no easy matter BY RICK FOSTER SUN CHRONICLE STAFF ATTLEBORO - When Don Smyth decided to replace his old oil furnace, he tapped contacts in the construction and plumbing business to get ideas on whether and how he should convert his home heating system to gas. Smith settled on a highly efficient "European-style" gas boiler manufactured right here in Massachusetts, and got the gas company to extend a supply line to his house for free. With oil prices far above their level in 2007, Smyth says he's hoping to keeping his heating bill under control. It's not an easy decision, considering installing a new heating system can cost $5,000 and up. But Smyth is hardly alone. Bay State Gas, provider of natural gas for residential gas heating in the Attleboro area, has seen a 17 percent increase in requests to convert to gas heat this year over 2007, spokesman Don Dinunno said. With about 423 requests currently on the books, installations are backlogged six to eight weeks. Even with recent declines in the price of crude oil, the cost of heating with both gas and oil have increased significantly over the past year. And with oil hovering in the vicinity of $4 per gallon, consumers continue to investigate alternatives, ranging from gas to wood pellet burners. According to a newly released report by the University of Massachusetts' Donahue Institute, the average household is expected to pay more than $3,000 for oil heat in 2009, compared with less than $2,000 in 2007. Gas heating customers are expected to spend about 15 percent more next year for a total of $1,500, on average. Overall, Bay State consumers can expect to spend $4.4 billion for gas and oil heat in 2009. The report also warns that thousands more households will have problems paying their energy bills next year. Fully 160,000 homes are listed as moderately or severely burdened by heating costs. The gap between oil and gas heating costs used to be smaller, but rising prices for crude oil have dramatically driven up the cost of No. 2 heating oil and diesel fuel. Oil costs haven't been helped by the fact that about two-thirds of U.S. consumption is imported from foreign countries, including the volatile Middle East. By comparision about 95 percent of the gas distributed by Bay State gas comes either from the United States or Canada. In addition, says the U.S. Energy Information Administration, demand for petroleum in the form of diesel fuel or heating oil has been increasing steadily, with strong demand in China, Europe, and the United States, putting more pressure on already tight global refining capacity. Few are eager to bet on whether gas or oil will be the best bet in the future. "To make a prediction on the future with any degree of accuracy is virtually impossible," said Jeremy Wolf, a research assistant at the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute. However, Wolf said many homeowners are still not making use of low-cost, high-return solutions that can improve heating efficiency, such as day-night thermostats and reducing drafts by replacing or repairing windows and doors. Such measures can pay big dividends in fuel savings, regardless of what heating source is used. The rush by many consumers to convert to gas has benefited some Bay State businesses, particularly heating and air conditioning companies and manufacturers and distributors of gas furnaces and appliances. A number of local plumbers and heating specialists say they're receiving an increasing number of calls to convert, and companies such as Heat Transfer Products in Freetown, makers of high-tech condensing boilers and other high-efficiency heating equipment, are brimming with orders. "Our numbers are way up over last year," said Heat Transfer President David Martin. Heat Transfer's diminutive Munchkin gas boiler heats small amounts of water at a time, creating heating efficiency of up to 95 percent. With the cost of installing a new boiler often exceeding $5,000, however, heating experts say consumers must weigh the payback they expect to receive in converting to gas. Those who have already installed up-to-date, highly efficient oil burners may not receive as much benefit if it means paying thousands of dollars for a new heating plant. And in view of the global uncertainty regarding energy costs, both gas and oil prices could fluctuate further. Even gas companies aren't pushing gas conversions as an economic solution to high heating costs. Bay State Gas' DiNunno said that if a customer is already thinking about replacing an aging, less efficient heater, installing a gas furnace may be a "viable alternative." Some existing gas users are also looking to improve efficiency. Tom Reeves, who had the boiler at his Attleboro industrial plant replaced with three smaller, Heat Transfer Products heating units, says he's saved about 30 percent in gas consumption. While many households may be able to economize by converting to gas or alternate heating sources, local antipoverty agencies and charitable groups are concerned about poor families who lack any options other than going without heat. "We're very worried," said Jonathan Carlson, executive director of Self Help, which overseas the federal heating assistance program in the area. With oil prices sharply higher, Carlson said benefit levels will have to rise dramatically to keep low-income families and seniors warm. Last year's maximum benefit was about $1,100, he said. If government heating assistance programs cannot come to the rescue, more of the burden may fall on private groups such as HEAT, which has assisted moderate and low income families with their oil, gas and utility families. "We try to help people who fall between the cracks," said President DeAnne Auclair. The nonprofit group has helped 56 families through obtaining grants, donations and holding an annual Soup for Heat fundraising event. Auclair said she's worried that more people will have difficulty keeping their families warm this winter. "It could be very difficult," she said. "People are going to be making some hard choices this winter." Donations can be sent to HEAT, Post Office Box 4104, Attleboro and are tax deductible, Auclair said.