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Here are some reasons Barack Obama should win the presidency:

History is on Obama's side. The party in power for two terms is nearly always the party out of power the next term. Just ask Al Gore.

Obama will dominate the all-important debates. He is by far the better speaker, with and without prepared remarks. John McCain will come off as scripted and flat-footed. He'll look a lot like George Bush, only less folksy. Sarah Palin may in fact get the better of Joe Biden in the vice presidential debate, since appearances can mean more than substance, but their Oct. 2 showdown will be watched mostly for entertainment.

Voters will treat the presidential debates more seriously, especially independents who haven't made up their mind on which ticket to support. The first presidential debate is this Friday (Sept. 26), the second is Tuesday, Oct. 7 and the third is Wednesday, Oct. 15. Mark your calendars for this must-see TV.

Palin still hasn't been fully vetted - by the media. For a recent examination of the governor's Alaska political career The New York Times interviewed 60 state and local officials. You can bet anyone she crossed - and she ousted many Democrats - is printing out old e-mails and turning them over to the press. McCain's campaign advisers will be looking over their shoulder until the election, fearful of some Pulitzer-worthy story coming out. (By the way, it's not so much that reporters are liberal as it is that they know a blockbuster story about Palin will make their career. The fact that we now know the McCain people really did no vetting of Palin has made reporters all the more aggressive.) McCain has a long, long record to defend, and he's done more tacking than John Kerry. The endearing maverick image will wear thin by election time. Meanwhile, Obama has a short record that's already old news, thanks to Hillary Clinton. Obama still has lots to bring out about McCain while there's little new McCain can say about Obama.

McCain has a, shall we say, complicated marital history that will become better known as the election draws near. (If you can't wait that long, see the Sept. 15 issue of The New Yorker.) In contrast, images of Obama's picture-book family are familiar to voters. Likewise, Obama has humble roots that will connect with voters while McCain is the son of privilege with a wife worth nearly $100 million.

Obama is young; McCain is old. This means different things to different people - but America does love youthful vigor.

Obama has the campuses, and the kids may actually vote this time, if only because their friends and family will hound them with text messages until they go to the polls.

Finally, McCain's pick of Palin as his running mate makes a vote for Obama less radical. Both tickets are breaking ground for their parties in this election. The prospect of electing the nation's first black president might have given some voters pause. Now that is balanced by the prospect of electing the nation's first female vice president. The precedents more or less cancel each other out.

These are a few of the reasons Obama should win the presidential election. But will he? You may have noticed that not one of these reasons relates to actual political issues which have been known to influence elections. And there's still six weeks of campaigning to go. So there's more than enough room for an "upset."

It's as much folly to predict the outcome of an election as it is to predict the outcome of the Super Bowl, even when your team has gone 18-and-0. But I am willing to make one prediction: Obama will win Massachusetts.

NED BRISTOL is a former Sun Chronicle editor.