Last modified: Wednesday, November 26, 2008 12:01 PM EST Consumers cutting back, retailers fear BY MATT KAKLEY SUN CHRONICLE STAFF By midnight on Thanksgiving, the extreme shoppers will be lined up, lists in hand, ready to muscle into their favorite stores with rib-jabbing gusto. Retailers aren't worried about those folks. Concern rests with the likes of North Attleboro's Jill Carrigan, who in the past was a reliable - if not crazed - holiday shopper. But with the economy in upheaval, this is a different holiday shopping season. While taking a break last week at Emerald Square in North Attleboro, Carrigan said this holiday season will be tight. "We're not going to be able to able to buy as many gifts as we'd like for our kids," said Carrigan, who is currently out of work after giving birth to a daughter a few weeks ago. "We only have one income right now, so I'm looking for more sales than I used to," she said. Carrigan is just one of many who will be searching for better bargains and lower prices this year as the economy continues to struggle and retailers search for ways to get consumers out and shopping. "We're going to see huge bargains the closer we get to Christmas," said Mark Neckes, a retail analyst and Johnson and Wales University professor. "There are cash incentives to come into the stores and it isn't even Black Friday yet." Black Friday is the day after Thanksgiving and the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season. Retailers have their fingers crossed. Between September and October, retail sales dropped 2.8 percent nationwide, according to the Department of Labor, a development that has led to fear among retailers that the winter holiday season could be down, as well. Jon Hurst, president of the Retailers Association of Massachusetts, said his organization is predicting a 1 percent decline, compared with last year's numbers, in retail sales across the state during this holiday season. "It's not going to be a gangbusters year by any means," Hurst said. Last week, the Labor Department announced that consumer prices fell 1 percent between September and October. The deflation was the largest single-month drop since the department began publishing statistics in 1947. In addition to lower prices and more sales, consumers are being treated to special promotions and events as they make their way to shopping centers. Emerald Square in North Attleboro will be offering preferred parking to customers who come in groups of four this weekend, rejuvenation centers for shoppers to relax, and greeters to point people towards the biggest bargains. Despite the bargains and special events, many people are hesitant to head to the mall and spend money, fearing they may lose their jobs in the coming weeks. Last week, the state announced that unemployment rose to 5.5 percent in October, up from 5.3 percent in September. While the state rate remains well below the national rate of 6.5 percent, residents remain fearful that a pink slip may be right around the corner. "My friends are worried (about getting laid off)," said Heather Chin, of North Attleboro, as she shopped at Emerald Square. "They don't know if it's going to be next month, next week." "You don't want to spend too much now and then find out that you don't have enough later," she said. While retailers will be contending with consumers reluctant to spend, there may be a silver lining as gas prices continue to fall rapidly after topping out at $4 this summer, leaving people with more money in their pockets. "All that disposable income that was going towards gas can now go to something else," Hurst said. Neckes said many high-end stores can expect to see their sales shrink as customers search for better bargains, often at discount stores like Wal-Mart and Kohl's. "These stores have the appearance of offering value and people are going to go where the bargains are," he said. Although the spending rates may end up down this holiday season, Hurst said he's confident people will still be out shopping, even if it's at less expensive stores. "It's Christmas," he said. "Consumers are going to deliver the holiday season to their families." MATT KAKLEY can be reached at 508-236-0333 or at mkakley@thesunchronicle.com.