Last modified: Sunday, June 14, 2009 2:02 AM EDT BRISTOL: Knowing when it's time to sell... I had occasion the other day to reread the chapter on home buying in a financial advice book. The book by noted author Jane Bryant Quinn came out in 2006, just before the collapse of the real estate market. Quinn, ever levelheaded, was wary back then. She pointed out that there had been only two major real estate booms in the last hundred years. The first was after World War II. The second began in 1998 "and may be slowing as I write (you can't predict when booms will end - only that they will)." She didn't have to wait long to see the bubble burst. It did, and brought down the economy with it. The question now is how long the slump will last. Just as you don't know you're in a bubble until it pops you can't know when the economy hits bottom until after the fact. There have been some encouraging signs that the decline is at least easing, but there are also plenty of economists who say that recovery is a ways off. As for the housing industry, there's a case to be made for home prices to continue to fall for some time. Robert Shiller, a professor of economics and finance at Yale, wrote in The New York Times that in periods of high unemployment young couples typically put off buying a house because of uncertainty about their own jobs. The reduced demand leads to further price reductions. Shiller noted that the home price runup of the late 1980s - remember the "Massachusetts Miracle" that launched the Dukakis presidential campaign? - ended with the recession of 1990-91, and home prices didn't start increasing until 1997. As for the current market, the Obama administration has forecast continued house price declines through the end of 2010. By then, prices will have fallen 41 percent since 2006, according to that projection. Some people read such tea leaves and try to time the market. In sort of the opposite of the "flip this house" mania of the real estate boom, couples wait and wait to commit until they're convinced the market has hit bottom. This is a fool's errand. There's no way to predict when the bottom will come or even to recognize the bottom until after it's gone by. This could be years away, as in the 1990s, or it could begin with next spring's home buying season, say. In the end, this whole timing issue is beside the point. A house, after all, is not really an investment. It's a home with more meaning and importance for a family's life than some stocks or bonds. For a first-time home buyer, the most important question is when is it right to go from renting to owning, a decision involving lifestyle, career, children, the urge to mow your own lawn. Postponing the purchase of a house because the value may decline some more when the purchase will likely be financed with a 30-year mortgage doesn't make a lot of sense. Just now, such a delay may even be counterproductive because interest rates are rising, increasing the mortgage payments. As for homeowners looking to move, the price fluctuation is pretty much a nonfactor. The cost of the house to be bought goes down, but so does the value of the house to be sold. Jane Bryant Quinn clarified the issue well in her book, "Smart and Simple Financial Strategies for Busy People." She wrote, "The best time to buy a home is when you want it, need it, and can afford it, no matter what's happening to housing prices. The best time to sell is when you want to move." NED BRISTOL is a member of The Sun Chronicle Editorial Board and a former editor of the newspaper.